Sammy McNally is an itinerant Fenian scribbler… and a fictional prod character bestowed upon us by James Young. He has previously written for other blogs such as BangorDub, Three Thousand Versts and Slugger O’Toole. He describes his politics as “Republican lite”.
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More than 13 years after having approved the Good Friday Agreement, both ‘communities’ in Northern Ireland are perhaps only now having to face up to some unpleasant realities. The last quarter of 2012, has delivered in a very even-handed, very cross community kind of way, a crisis for both Prods and Fenians – and crises which go to the heart of their respective identities.
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For Nationalism, the belief that the publication of the census figures in 2012 would re-confirm the inevitably of a United Ireland has been thoroughly rattled – with less than 30% of respondents describing their Nationality as ‘Irish’.
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These results from this new census question on Nationality have seriously undermined the extrapolation from religious ‘community background’ to constitutional preference which has underpinned the Nationalist belief that Ulster’s Union with Britain will be doomed by ever greening demographics.
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Tempting as it may be for me and Nationalist number crunchers to try and seek succour from the hope that those in favour of Irish unity may have described themselves as ‘Northern Irish’ in the Census, I’m afraid these disappointing Nationality figures coupled with the on-going catastrophic condition of the (southern) Irish economy suggest that Gerry Adams’s optimistic statement that he would live to see a United Ireland looks as reliable Nigel Dodds’s unfortunate prediction that Police and Justice wouldn’t be transferred to Ulster within his natural.
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Although reservations have previously been expressed on Open Unionism on the suitability of census stats in inferring constitutional political ideology it may now seem reasonable to expect greater warming, by at least some Unionists, to these demographics. The census results seem to confirm what recent opinion polls have been indicating – that the Union is not, for the foreseeable future at least, under threat from Fenian fecundity – even if the percentage of the population from a Nationalist background continues to increase.
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In relation to Unionism, there can be little doubt that both the DUP and UUP have acted irresponsibly by (unfairly) targeting the Alliance party over the flags issue and in the process stirring up emotions which have now run out of control – but there is also little doubt that the limiting of the flying of the Union flag on the City Hall, has sparked off a genuine feeling among Unionists that the cultural erosion of their Britishness had now gone too far.
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Unionists, who have remained uncomfortable with aspects of the GFA (does the DUP still claim a majority of Unionists actually rejected it?) are now perhaps realising that the system of running Ulster which they are locked into will continue to throw up issues of ‘equality’ and ‘sharing’ which will inevitably mean a more neutral looking, and if not more politically Irish looking, then certainly a less British looking Ulster. Unionist alienation within Ulster(a political entity engineered specifically to meet Unionist political requirements) is therefore likely to grow, as those from the Nationalist community background (including those content with the constitutional status quo) increase in percentage terms.
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How the political leadership of each community deals with their current difficulties will be interesting.
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For the sake of public relations, SF will probably keep calling for a border poll but privately hoping that the Secretary of State realises what is going on and just ignores them. SF will be acutely aware that a bad result could be very damaging for the party in the North and also realising that any debate about taking on the 6 counties of Northern Ireland would not be something that those lending billions to the 26 counties of Southern Ireland or indeed the Southern electorate would wish to hear about. Dissident Republicans must be hoping that Gerry Adams does an Alex Salmond and ends up fighting a battle he is always going to lose.
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Gerry could do worse however, than biting the census bullet and blaming the gombeenery and corruption of the Southern State for undermining the economic basis for Unification. Admittedly a dangerous tactic to push the promise of a United Ireland into the long grass – but arguably better than the alternatives.
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For the main Unionist parties who seem intent on setting up some sort of funny forum to give the impression that they can resolve the flags issue to Unionist advantage they will have to play a canny game. Peter Robinson should perhaps magic up another ‘clever device’ – the previous one, you may remember was supposed to ensure that the Parades Commission would be replaced as the quid pro quo for the transfer of Police and Justice – which although not actually achieving anything on parades managed to push the issue down the track and lay the blame on the Orange Order.
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If Peter can repeat that masterstroke he will reinforce his reputation as the best political operator in these parts.
As 2012 closes, there are serious challenges for the leadership of both Nationalism and Unionism with an understandably nervous middle ground in the shape of the Alliance party watching and wondering if there will be any middle ground left as Ulster becomes ever more Balkanised.
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…and sundry paramilitaries on both sides will be waiting and hoping and perhaps expecting (and with some justification) that 2013 will be a year of fresh opportunities.
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23 comments
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footballcliches
January 2, 2013 at 5:56 am (UTC 0) Link to this comment
Hello to you Sammy.
How I do love your contrary writing, I do and many thanks for the link over on my site.
My problem with your analysis on this topic is and always will be the fact that you ASSUME that to self designate as ‘Northern Irish’ means that one is not Irish or wanting a UI. Now, you use the rather useful trick of Thomas and say that you will not believe until you see the holes in a certain someone’s hands or side but it can be said to the contrary that until YOU are able to define specifically what ‘Northern Irish’ actually means then you are merely peeing in the wind (I would have used another term but some on this site may be so easily offended, as was the case over on BD’s site not so long ago). You need to define what being ‘Northern Irish’ means and how it is against your stated principal otherwise your analysis is incomplete.
Sincerely,
FC
Sammy McNally
January 2, 2013 at 1:24 pm (UTC 0) Link to this comment
fc,
before these stats were released I suggested over on Bangordubs that the ‘Irish’ figure would be disappointing and would be met with an element of denial by Nats. I think it fair to say that this is what has unfolded.
Whilst I agree that I do of course ‘assume’ a number of things I also think it fair to say that my position is based on using those figures that we have the greatest degree of certainty regarding i.e. those who have declared themselves either ‘British’ or ‘Irish’ – in coming to any conclusions about the relative support for the Union.
I am aware that some work has been carried out to correlate Nat. background and those describing themselves as Northern Irish but in the absense of hard evidence of what the term means to those respondents I think it reasonable to exclude it as an indicator for either either position (or divide it equally between both).
From a statistical perspective I assume(again) this is the most robust position to adopt and on behalf of the Plain Nationalist People of Ireland, on whose behalf I regulalry enjoy speaking for, I hereby declare these census results a bitter disappointment.
Wendig
January 2, 2013 at 8:05 pm (UTC 0) Link to this comment
There seem to be two main spins on these census results.
A) The low number of “Irish” compared to “British”. This bolsters the NILT survey and assorted other surveys but tells us nothing much that we didn’t know. It simply firms up knowledge we already had, though many nationalists refused to believe it.
B) The fact that “Protestants” are now the minority in Northern Ireland. In fact this is both superficial and entirely expected. It also means very little since bear in mind that Protestants proper actually became a minority in Northern Ireland shortly after the 1991 census, in which they made up 50.6% of the population, and self declared Protestants are also now in the minority in Great Britain. Northern Ireland has lots of people who would put their religion on a census as “no religion” and vote UUP or DUP at elections, and has had them for decades. Their rapid increase may be worth taking note of but the contrived census “community background” construct crossing the 50% mark probably means even less than the Protestant proportion crossing the 50% mark in 1991 did.
This relates to the part of the 2011 census that the media has not picked up on yet, but may when further details are released. Namely that the proportion of the population from a Nationalist community background actually slightly shrunk between the 2001 and the 2011 censuses. In a nutshell the Catholic or brought up Catholic population increased by 1.38% in a census where 1.97% of the population were born in an A8 EU accession country and where 1.38% of the population speak either Polish or Lithuanian as their main language alone, 0.13% speak Portuguese as their main language and 0.11% Filipino. This shows the underlying demographics lining up with the Nationalist proportion of the vote which was entirely stagnant in elections between 2001 and 2011. Further evidence of this can be seen in the council areas where the Catholic native background forms the greatest percentage of the total Catholic population, such as in Derry and Newry and Mourne, where the Catholic or brought up Catholic population shrunk between 2001 and 2011 by 0.6% and 1.2% respectively.
The immediate Nationalist counter to this is that Catholic (or brought up Catholic) =/= Nationalist, which of course is strictly true, and that therefore the Nationalist proportion of the vote can increase even as the native Catholic proportion of the population shrinks, bolstered by Sinn Fein supporting atheists of Catholic genealogy and the like. The answer to that though is that that very hypothesis has been tested. Between 2001 and 2011 the nationalist proportion of the vote stayed the same while the native Catholic or brought up Catholic proportion stayed the same or probably slightly shrunk. In terms of the proof of the pudding we’ve already eaten ten years worth of it, and it says that the direction of travel of the Nationalist vote follows the direction of travel of the Catholic or brought up Catholic proportion.
The idea of “the percentage of the population from a Nationalist background continu[ing] to increase” now probably needs to be thrown in the dustbin. It’s actually probably going nowhere but down now, even if it’s Unionist counterpart is also going down. The evidence is there but perhaps still opaque enough to allow plausible deniability. I think that even unionists will be shocked when they discover that the Nationalist natural base has already right now reached it’s demographic peak at a mere 42%. It goes against the experience of more than a lifetime. With time though it will sink in that Nationalism and Unionism as voting blocs are actually BOTH set to decline unless either or both of them can appeal beyond their traditional base and into the ever increasing religious / demographic / product of “mixed marriage” middle ground that is the only expanding sector now.
factual
January 3, 2013 at 12:17 pm (UTC 0) Link to this comment
Wendig
If you look at % in Catholic schools, or % Catholic of school age, this has also flatined in the last 10 years.
That’s quite surprising given that a lot of the Children of the A8 accession countries are in school now.
Sammy McNally
January 5, 2013 at 10:02 pm (UTC 0) Link to this comment
factual,
There is presuambly quite a bit of variation in the figures which will become clearer with the next release of figures in January.
footballcliches
January 3, 2013 at 2:31 am (UTC 0) Link to this comment
Hi Sammy,
Let’s go over what you say as you do have a tendency to mix up being contrary (what I am) with repeating yourself ad nauseum without actually answering any questions or points raised.
‘before these stats were released I suggested over on Bangordubs that the ‘Irish’ figure would be disappointing and would be met with an element of denial by Nats. I think it fair to say that this is what has unfolded.’
You defined what would be disappointing FOR YOU, no one else Sammy.
‘Whilst I agree that I do of course ‘assume’ a number of things I also think it fair to say that my position is based on using those figures that we have the greatest degree of certainty regarding i.e. those who have declared themselves either ‘British’ or ‘Irish’ – in coming to any conclusions about the relative support for the Union.’
Yet, and as I have stated on numerous occasions here, on my site, BD’s or on Fitzie’s, you fail to define what designating as ‘Northern Irish’ means. Whilst there may indeed be a very large correlation between those who self-designate as ‘Northern Irish’ (myself included) and not wanting a UI this does not mean that being Northern Irish, or a Northerner as I have been referred to countless numbers of times in Dublin does not make me Irish or more importantly, makes me British, it simply doesn’t.
Again, you like to deal with certainty, yes, and those who designate as Irish or British would be fairly certain for you, however, I think your ‘analysis’ does more to show us an insight into your thoughts as opposed to shedding any kind of light on the figures. You immediately equate Irish as being the sole designation for Nats who want a UI, any other type of deviation simply won’t do. Then when someone like myself tells you, ‘hold on a second, I designated as Northern Irish and have a British passport out of sheer convenience and due to circumstance’, you proceed to repeat the same things over and over and over again without actually answering anything.
‘I am aware that some work has been carried out to correlate Nat. background and those describing themselves as Northern Irish but in the absense of hard evidence of what the term means to those respondents I think it reasonable to exclude it as an indicator for either either position (or divide it equally between both). From a statistical perspective I assume(again) this is the most robust position to adopt and on behalf of the Plain Nationalist People of Ireland, on whose behalf I regulalry enjoy speaking for, I hereby declare these census results a bitter disappointment.’
Declare all you want Sammy but you have admitted above that you have excluded ‘Northern Irish’ as an indicator of someone who wants a UI, therefore it goes without saying, that you have excluded ME from your calculations. And as we know from our talks on economics you don’t like stats of any kind, so the question to be asked is, why should anyone pay attention to someone who has no interest in statistics when the topic demands that you have some kind of interest in it?
You have come to a conclusion using a set of figures and you have omitted a huge chunk of them out of sheer convenience to show your hypothesis is correct, if we were in A-Level Maths you would be laughed out of the room tbh.
Look, I am not saying that you are incorrect, you may very well be correct on a lot of your assumptions, however, that is all they are, assumptions. You have not really shone any kind of light on to the large, gaping hole or the numbers we simply don’t know much about and until you do then all you have is a theory and nothing more.
Sammy McNally
January 3, 2013 at 11:34 am (UTC 0) Link to this comment
Wendig,
In reply to the point about increasing Protestant alienation you stated that.
Between 2001 and 2011 the nationalist proportion of the vote stayed the same while the native Catholic or brought up Catholic proportion stayed the same or probably slightly shrunk. In terms of the proof of the pudding we’ve already eaten ten years worth of it, and it says that the direction of travel of the Nationalist vote follows the direction of travel of the Catholic or brought up Catholic proportion.
That is a fair point, but as recent events show e.g the City hall – the Alliance party which includes at least some of the ‘Catholic’ demographic voted in line with Nationalism or perhaps should be more fairly characterised as voting in line with trying to negotiate a middle or fair way between the 2 consitutional ideologies.
Whether Alliance, Greens and other non aligned groups/individuals are designated as Unionist, or are actually Unionist, they do not vote (in general) in line with ‘tradional’ Unionist policies and on that basis it is reasonable to suggest that even with the Nat % percentage of the vote remaining stable (and Belfast council results for example suggests it is growing albeit slowly) Nats and sundry ‘Others’ if they continue to grow(as per last 10 years) will probably meanthat Unionists will continue to have diffiuclty in ensuring that ‘their culture’ is not futher eroded.
..and although recent events may reverse the trend towards these ‘others’ and there may be greater Unionist turnout based on the figures we actually have it must be remembered that between 2001 and 2011 The SDLP(-1), SF(+2) and Alliance(+3) combined seats in Belfast council went from 26 to 30.
fc,
re. “with repeating yourself ad nauseum without actually answering any questions or points raised.
Harsh.
Are you saying you are confident that the majority of people who put ‘Northern Irish’ on the census form are in favour of a United Ireland? I presume not.
Therefore do you not agree that in the absence of agreement/clarity of what ‘Northern Irish’ means we should exclude it and in statisicial terms that is the most sensible thing to do?
re. “You have not really shone any kind of light on to the large, gaping hole or the numbers we simply don’t know much about and until you do then all you have is a theory and nothing more.”
I agree – and as stated above the most sensible analysis is therefore that which is based on the least number of assumptions and therefore relies on those categories “Biritsh” and ‘Irish’ in which we have the greatest confidence about their meaning.
Alison O'Loan
January 3, 2013 at 5:11 pm (UTC 0) Link to this comment
“Whether Alliance, Greens and other non aligned groups/individuals are designated as Unionist, or are actually Unionist, they do not vote (in general) in line with ‘tradional’ Unionist policies and on that basis it is reasonable to suggest that even with the Nat % percentage of the vote remaining stable (and Belfast council results for example suggests it is growing albeit slowly) Nats and sundry ‘Others’ if they continue to grow(as per last 10 years) will probably meanthat Unionists will continue to have diffiuclty in ensuring that ‘their culture’ is not futher eroded.”
Unionists should not worry too much about these things Sammy. They should just get on with being citizens of the UK, which when stripped down is what their movement is really all about. The economic and cultural effects of membership of the UK – the BBC, the NHS, the intellectual framework of the UK, and the traditions of cultural and religious freedom and so on – are the things that unionists wanted from membership of the Union, and those can’t be eroded by the Green party or Alliance.
Sammy McNally
January 3, 2013 at 7:06 pm (UTC 0) Link to this comment
Alison,
I lagely agree with that. Unionsts often act in a counter productive manner whilst attempting to maintain their ‘British culture’ and in such a way as to be viewed as sectarian and bigoted, not only by Nats but also by British mainlanders.
Clearly, Unionsts should concentrate on what they have (relatively) safely in the bag (ie the Union) but the gap between what Unionist should do and they actually do remains quite wide as the ridiculous fuss over flags perfectly illustrates.
Ulster is clearly not as British as Finchley, after all its de facto constitution required the consent of the government and people of a (to them) foreign country – but it is much more British than Finglas – and this reality is something Unionists have not as yet come to terms with.
footballcliches
January 4, 2013 at 1:47 am (UTC 0) Link to this comment
Sammy,
Harsh, perhaps, yet you do have a massive tendency not to answer points raised whether it was over on FJH’s on economics or Norn Iron football team, you repeated the same mantra over and over.
‘Are you saying you are confident that the majority of people who put ‘Northern Irish’ on the census form are in favour of a United Ireland? I presume not.’
Here’s the matter I have been trying to get through at great length and I shall do this one more time as I have a life outside, WE SIMPLY DON’T KNOW. I have noted too many times now to bother counting that you have a massive gap in your analysis, you have even admitted this above! Until you find out what this gap actually means we are merely speculating. Now, many of us have used anecdotal evidence of how the term ‘Northern Irish’ is used and I would agree a massive health warning should be given, yet you are using such ‘certainty’ in your analysis whilst discounting a whopping amount of the population of the number set it actually beggars belief tbh. I don’t know what’s worse, you going along with this nonsense at length or me constantly coming back here and talking to what appears to be a brick wall. That’s not being contrary Sammy, that’s repeating yourself much like how a monk chants without dealing with matters.
In the North there really are really only 2 choices for a constitutional outlook, remain in the union or a UI, therefore by saying ‘hey, I have this data in this massive number set that I don’t know what it means so lets discount it all together’, you have really said I don’t want to figure out what’s going on, I don’t want to delve into it and I shall make some rather large assumptions based on a data set that I have decided to largely corrupt myself.
‘I agree – and as stated above the most sensible analysis is therefore that which is based on the least number of assumptions and therefore relies on those categories “British” and ‘Irish’ in which we have the greatest confidence about their meaning.’
No, the most sensible thing to do is figure out what that massive gap in your analysis actually means rather than make large assumptions on self-inflicted flawed reading of data. You have made a rather large assumption that to state you are ‘Northern Irish’ means you want to remain in the union. I could just quite easily make the ‘assumption’ that if one did not state ‘British’ on the census then you want a UI, but I haven’t. What I have said is without knowing what ‘Northern Irish’ actually means I look at election results instead as they are a better indicator of the electorate’s political ambitions (imagine that).
Sammy McNally
January 4, 2013 at 10:31 am (UTC 0) Link to this comment
fc,
re. “yet you do have a massive tendency not to answer points raised whether it was over on FJH’s on economics or Norn Iron football team, you repeated the same mantra over and over.”
If someone doesnt grasp a concept then repitition is generally a good idea – and with that in mind….
I have dealt directly with the issue of the ‘Northern Irish’ – we dont know what these ‘Northern Irish’ believe in – so we exclude them until we do and use the information we do know about ie the figures for those who declare themselves British or Irish. I genuinely cant see what is so difficult with that concept?
Earlier you stated – “You have come to a conclusion using a set of figures and you have omitted a huge chunk of them out of sheer convenience to show your hypothesis is correct, if we were in A-Level Maths you would be laughed out of the room tbh.”
That is bunkum – I have simply noted that where we have a degree of certainty about constitutional allegiance that those who describe themselves as British have a substantial lead over those who describe themselves as Irish – absolutely and completely simples – or at least it should be – and hurling abuse whilst dancing round the topic wont change that.
p.s. Good program on the topic of the Northern Iirish here http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01phfn3
alison o'loan
January 4, 2013 at 11:16 am (UTC 0) Link to this comment
Hi SMcN Interesting. That program shows that some unionists say that they are Irish.
Sammy McNally
January 4, 2013 at 5:16 pm (UTC 0) Link to this comment
Alison,
Yes, there seems to be an understandable reluctance by unionists to being viewed as ‘Irish’ if the term is interpeted(as it often is) as indicating support for a UI – where the term clearly does not indicate that for example in relation to the rugby team then largely there does not seem to be a problem – although the ‘Irish’ rugby team does(unfortunately in my opinion) display the symbols suggestive of a single country – which is a problem for some Unionists.
Alison O'Loan
January 4, 2013 at 6:43 pm (UTC 0) Link to this comment
The republican from Derry when asked why he was Irish he equated Irishness to gaelic culture. I think those unionists who describe as Irish have in mind a broader Irishness that is more multucutlural than that.
You make an interesting point about the Irish Rugby team. Are you objecting to the IRFU flag? Tend to think Rugby with its use of “ireland’s call” has been very progressive in this regard of trying to be inclusive.
Sammy McNally
January 4, 2013 at 10:04 pm (UTC 0) Link to this comment
Alison,
The IRFU have generally done a good job in difficult circumstances but have managed to feck it up – at least a bit – by insisting on playing the Irish National anthem and flying the Irish flag(when playing in the South).
alison o'hare
January 5, 2013 at 10:51 am (UTC 0) Link to this comment
A good point. Hopefully this can be worked on.
footballcliches
January 7, 2013 at 11:55 pm (UTC 0) Link to this comment
Morning Sammy,
Apologies for the delay with the reply but it was the weekend after all. I did wonder what you would come back with and I am unfortunately not pleasantly surprised with the reply. I shall FOR THE LAST TIME go over where your analysis is massively incomplete.
‘If someone doesnt grasp a concept then repitition is generally a good idea – and with that in mind….’
Meow Sammy, though I do note that as you have omitted a massive 15% of the result in your analysis your analysis can only be described as incomplete, so someone who is unable to grasp how to review a number set is trying to tell us what the numbers say, again, laughable, unless of course you are suggesting that your ‘analysis’ is complete?
‘I have dealt directly with the issue of the ‘Northern Irish’ – we dont know what these ‘Northern Irish’ believe in – so we exclude them until we do and use the information we do know about ie the figures for those who declare themselves British or Irish. I genuinely cant see what is so difficult with that concept?’
I know you cannot see what is so difficult with the concept as you are awful at analyzing a data set by omitting a large chunk of it. If it were a percent or two, fine, put it to the side like we would for those who self designate as ‘Jedi Knight’ or something like that, but something near 15% of people self-designating with a term that that has a massive impact on the analysis of this data set and you have merely decided to set it aside, that beggars belief, I’m actually amazed you have continued but you have resorted to form and merely repeat yourself ad nauseam in your replies.
Further, you have not dealt with ‘Northern Irish’ at all for if you had you would be providing us with results from your research. Have you got some results for us that you would like to share now? I will hazard a guess that you have not and have merely omitted a massive chunk of the data that may shine a light on the census results as you couldn’t be bothered researching this data or that by omitting the chunk of data you get the result you want.
‘That is bunkum – I have simply noted that where we have a degree of certainty about constitutional allegiance that those who describe themselves as British have a substantial lead over those who describe themselves as Irish – absolutely and completely simples – or at least it should be – and hurling abuse whilst dancing round the topic wont change that.’
Dancing around the topic? Wow Sammy, I’m not the one who has omitted a massive chunk of a data set and given an ‘analysis’ on incomplete data. If you are unwilling to do any kind of research on the numbers you are unsure of then do not act like we have a degree of certainty on the result for we do not. As I have repeated until I am near blue in the face, you do not know the allegiance of people who self designate as ‘Northern Irish’, and as they make up a massive chunk of the data set your analysis is incomplete. Are you suggesting that your analysis is complete?
If I wanted to be particularly contrary I would note that you do not know the allegiance of people who designate as Irish or even British, you just know that people designated as this in certain numbers. If my memory serves me right, political allegiance was not logged on the census but you could obviously point me in the right direction on that score, right Sammy?
Now if you had merely stated, ‘we know x% designate as Irish, we know y% designate as British and we know z% designate as Northern Irish’ and then finished your analysis saying we simply don’t know how this plays out in the North that would be fair enough, however, you decided to continue on and omit a part of the data set and make an analysis off the back of it with little to back it up. Again, and I hope that by pointing out where you are going wrong you may decide to pay heed and review your work or even take a small interest in statistics before analyzing a data set, your ‘analysis’ is massively incomplete, it merely acts as a window to your thinking in general as opposed to an analysis of the numbers.
‘p.s. Good program on the topic of the Northern Iirish here http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01phfn3‘
I’m in Aus and therefore cannot view though thank you for the link.
So, rather than you and I continue this on Sammy, I will ask you a simple question:
Do you believe your analysis of the data set is complete?
Sammy McNally
January 8, 2013 at 1:06 pm (UTC 0) Link to this comment
fc,
re. “Do you believe your analysis of the data set is complete”.
Quite how you can ask that question after the answer I gave you previously I really dont know.
Here is the question you asked me previously
“re. “You have not really shone any kind of light on to the large, gaping hole or the numbers we simply don’t know much about and until you do then all you have is a theory and nothing more.”
And here was my answer.
“I agree – and as stated above the most sensible analysis is therefore that which is based on the least number of assumptions and therefore relies on those categories “Biritsh” and ‘Irish’ in which we have the greatest confidence about their meaning.”
I only have a theory, I will continue to suggest in the absence of clarity on what ‘Northern Irish’ actually means that it is reasonable to use the responses “British’ and ‘Irish’ becuase my view/theory/opinion is that they are safer to interpet. I think the simplest way to look at the ‘Northern Irish’ responses is to characterise them as the opinion poll equivalent of dont know/no answer and therefore use the other figures.
I suspect you wont be won over by this post – and I sugggest we leave trading personal abuse aside – not that I’m against that kind of thing- but more in the interests of clarity and also becuase any passers by might not like to get involved in a bun-fight.
footballcliches
January 9, 2013 at 12:22 am (UTC 0) Link to this comment
Sammy,
Quote what you like my point stands and this is something you are unwilling to fathom; if your analysis of the numbers is incomplete then your analysis of how this affects the political movements in the North must also be incomplete.
Your analysis is in line with pretty much everyone else’s whether they think that designating as ‘Northern Irish’ is someone showing that they are middle of the road much like what Gerry Lynch over on SOT was trying to say, or Jude’s analysis and others where they noted that the number would tally in the main with people who vote for Nats and would be of the UI disposition.
You have not really performed any kind of an analysis here Sammy as where the really interesting stuff is, those who designate as ‘Northern Irish’, you have left untouched.
‘I suspect you wont be won over by this post – and I sugggest we leave trading personal abuse aside – not that I’m against that kind of thing- but more in the interests of clarity and also becuase any passers by might not like to get involved in a bun-fight.’
You are right Sammy, I will not be won over by this post and as I have noted at length it is not because of your theory, I noted at 2.31am on Jan 3rd that you may indeed be right and I would be fine with that. My beef is how you have come to your conclusions by disregarding a large piece of empirical evidence, the really interesting stuff tbh, that would help us figure out the true ramifications behind the census.
This is not an argument over politics Sammy, it’s over stats and how you have used them, that is all.
Sammy McNally
January 9, 2013 at 12:17 pm (UTC 0) Link to this comment
re. “This is not an argument over politics Sammy, it’s over stats and how you have used them, that is all.”
Fair enough. I see my position as basing my analysis/opinion/theory on those results for ‘National Identity’ which I feel are a strong indicator of consitutional allegiance (Irsh or British) and omitting those figures (Northern Iirish) which it is problematic to draw conclusions from.
I suggest that from a statitistical robustness point of view, given the sample size, that is a reasonable approach albeit with limitiations
footballcliches
January 11, 2013 at 1:51 am (UTC 0) Link to this comment
Sammy,
footballcliches
January 11, 2013 at 1:57 am (UTC 0) Link to this comment
Sammy,
I can fully understand the logic behind your position, however, and bringing this back to stats and their use, if you are going to disregard or not account for a large chunk of the sample which would most definitely have a very large bearing in the final outcome then I will raise a lot of questions.
Sammy McNally
January 11, 2013 at 7:40 pm (UTC 0) Link to this comment
fc,
I have opened a third front now on this over on BangorDubs.